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《科学通报(英文版)》 2010-19
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Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century

LI QingXiang1*,DONG WenJie2,LI Wei3,GAO XiaoRong1,JONES P4,KENNEDY J5 & PARKER D51 National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China;2 Beijing Normal University,Laboratory of Surface Process and Resources Economies,Beijing 100875,China;3 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;4 Climatic Research Unit,School of Environmental Sciences,University of East Anglia,Norwich NR4 7TJ,UK;5 Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter,EX1 3PB,UK  
We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3,a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900,to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability.We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data:measurement and sampling errors,uncertainties in temperature bias estimates,and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated.We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record.The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole,and 0.14±0.021°C/decade,0.11±0.021°C/decade,0.04±0.017°C/decade,and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter,spring,summer and autumn respectively.For 1954-2006,the trends for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn are:0.26±0.032°C/decade,0.35±0.046°C/decade,0.25±0.051°C/decade,0.16±0.037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade.Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006,while during the most recent period(the satellite era,1979-2006),all the seasons show similar warming trends:0.45±0.13°C/decade,0.51±0.11°C/decade,0.52±0.16°C/decade,0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn.Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001,so this bias was not removed.
【Fund】: supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme-GA01101;; supported by the National Science and Technology Supporting Plan of the Twelfth Five-Year (2007BAC29B01-01);; the Ministry of Science and Technology of China through the based-platforms special project of the scientific data sharing system (2005DKA31700-01);; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40605021);; China Meteorological Administration Special Foundation for Climate Change (540000G010C01)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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