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《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering》 2008-01
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Estimation models of distribution functions for travel time value with maximum entropy principle

Yu Li-jun, Xu Jian-min (School of Traffic and Communications, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, Guangdong, China)  
In order to improve the goodness-of-fit accuracy of statistical distribution for travel time value with its stylebook data, maximum entropy principle was combined with probability-weighted moments (PWM) and statistical ordinary moments (SOM)(≤6) respectively, two new statistical distribution models were proposed, and parameter estimation was carried out by using probability-weighted moments and statistical ordinary moments. Simulation result shows that when the number of stylebooks is less than 30, the average relative errors between exact values and estimating values range from 10% to 35% and from 20% to 80% respectively, but the statistical accuracies are similar on large sample size condition, so the estimating accuracy with probability-weighted moments is higher. Obviously, the proposed methods are useful to promote parameter estimating accuracy, may predict the split ratios of traffic modes effectively, and analyze the influence of transportation pricing policy on travel behaviors. 6 figs, 25 refs.
【Fund】: 国家863计划项目(2006AA11Z211);; 国家自然科学基金项目(50578064)
【CateGory Index】: U491.1
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