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《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering》 2008-04
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Calculation method of reliability for driving behavior based on monotone coherent system

LIU Yu-zeng1,GUO Zi-zheng2,ZHANG Jun2(1.Department of Traffic Management,Sichuan Police College,Luzhou 646000,Sichuan,China;2.School of Traffic and Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan,China)  
In order to evaluate the reliability of driving behavior,a calculation method was put forward,with the combination of human-machine system reliability theory and driving behavior chain,a reliability diagram was constructed which included sensitivity,judgment,operation elements and their modules,the reliability test and calculation method for every apparatus element were ensured,the reliability quantitative models for function modules and driving behavior system were calculated based on monotone coherent system theory,the probability importances of every physiological and psychological elements were computed,and their influence degrees on driving behavior were analyzed.Computation result shows that there is an obvious reliability difference between accident group and non-accident group,non-accident group has better reliability than accident group,its whole reliability shows a downward trend,the drivers' whole operation stabilities in accident group are worse;the impact of physiological factor on driving behavior reliability is larger in the pre-period than the latter period,while psychological factor is opposite.
【Fund】: 公安部重点科研项目(2005)
【CateGory Index】: U491.254
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