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《Chinese Journal of Space Science》 2009-02
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Short-term Forecast of f_0F_2 Based on Ionospheric Storm Empirical Model and Kalman Filter

XU Tong~1 WU Jian~2 WU Zhensen~1 HUANG Chaojun~3 Wei Guohui~4 FENG Jian~2 ~1(School of Science,Xidian University,Xi'an 710071) ~2(China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation) ~3(Department of Physics,Shaanxi University of Technology) ~4(School of Science,Southwest Petroleum University)  
With the time weighted accumulation index ap(T),an empirical storm model of the relative deviation of f_0F_2 from its monthly median is established.It shows good accuracy only at strong geomagnetic disturbed condition in summer and equinoxes,but less accuracy result for winter.The wide used method in weather,hydrography,etc.,Kalman filter,is used to update the coefficients of the empirical model and expected to make better improvement.The test with the ionosound data of hourly values from 1986 to 1995 at Changchun illustrates that the root-meansqure error of the forecasted values in one hour advance is 0.76 MHz in winter,0.68 MHz in summer and 0.61MHz in equinoxes,respectively.The root-mean-squre error in different seasons are from 0.87MHz to 1.43MHz in the case of ap(T)100,i.e.the super strong geomagnetic disturbed condition.Simultaneously the method is compared with IRI2001 including the STORM model for several disturbed events,which shows the ability of updating the model coefficients and prospect of application.
【Fund】: 自然科学重大国际合作项目(40310223);; 电波环境特性及模化技术国家重点实验室项目(9140C0801060803 9140C0801060803)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P352.4
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