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《Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences》 2007-01
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China's Energy Demand and Conservation Potential Forecast During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period

Yi-Ming Wei Hua Liao Ying Fan (Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing)  
Saving energy is one of the crucial issues of fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation-minded society. In its 11th Five Year Plan, China has set a target of reducing its energy intensity by about 20% by 2010 in respect to 2005 value. By building an energy-economy model, this paper studies the impacts of investment ratio, energy price and technological progress on energy demand, forecasts China's energy demand and conservation potential during 2006-2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(70425001 70573104 70371064);; 中国科学院预测科学研究中心资助;; 中国发展研究基金会的资助
【CateGory Index】: F426.2;F206
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