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WANG Xiao-rong,LI Zhi-hai,WANG Zai-hua(Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)  
A simple and shortcut prediction method was brought forward,three factors of earthquake can be determined by it.The result shows that,(1)The cumulative frequency of Ms3 earthquakesis lower than the average frequency for 6 months in Xinjiang,the probability of Ms6 earthquakes oc-cur in Xinjiang is 90%.(2)If regard the response earthquakes region as preparation hypocenter re-gion during earthquakes are active in Xinjiang,the probability of mid-strong earthquakes occur inXinjiang is 86%.(3)If there are low b value in preparation hypocenter region for more than oneyear,the probability of Ms6 earthquakes occur in radius of 250 km for the region within one year is75%.(4)When system is stable,the change of one unit can’t let the whole system occur nonlin-ear respponse,but when the system is not stable,the change of one unit maybe trigger the earth-quakes under high stress state.
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