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《Logistics Sci-Tech》 2015-08
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Forecast of the Motor Vehicle Inventory of Middle-sized and Small Cities Based on the Gray Model and It's Application

JING Wei-gang;DONG Jie-shuang;FENG Ji-peng;College of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology;College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University;  
No matter the area or the population, small and medium-sized city is advancing rapidly. Facing the reality of increasing scale, for the traffic structure and land planning,small and medium-sized city needs to be clear the motor vehicle inventory in the future. Based on this background and the advantages of grey model's high forecast precision and complete theory, the article forecasts the motor vehicle inventory of middle-sized and small cities, and establishes the grey forecast model of motor vehicle inventory, and forecasts the motor vehicle inventory in the future, the article takes a city of Shandong province for example to verify the validity of the model. In view of the current common phenomenon of small and medium-sized city's motor vehicle inventory is growing fast, the article analyzes several prominent causes, and gives some countermeasures. The thesis research has positive significance to guide the traffic development of small and mediumsized city.
【Fund】: 上海市联盟计划—难题招标专项项目 项目编号:2014275
【CateGory Index】: F572
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