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《Tourism Tribune》 2011-11
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An Analysis of the Application of Combined Forecast in China's Inbound Tourism Based on IOWHA Operator

WU Liang-ping1,2,ZHANG Jian1,2,LU Yuan2(1.Visual Computing and Virtual Reality Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610068,China;2.College of Mathematics and Software Science,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610068,China)  
In order to improve the forecast precision of monthly data of China's inbound tourists,we choose currently the most relatively superior monomial forecast model—TRAMO/SEATS short memory forecast model and ARFIMA long memory forecast model and adopt traditional linear forecast model that is most suitable for forecasting monthly data of China's inbound tourists to combine each monomial forecast model based on IOWHA operator.The results show that combined forecast model that the paper establishes based on IOWHA operator has achieved the highest forecast precision of monthly data of China's inbound tourists so far.Finally,the paper in accordance with the comparison between actual value of China's inbound tourists and prediction of combined model value,makes a quantitative analysis of the impact degree and time lag of world financial crisis and other events on China's inbound tourism and probe into the future tendency for developing China's inbound tourism.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(11071177);; 可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室项目(J2010N10)资助~~
【CateGory Index】: F592
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