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《Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University》 2009-04
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Multi-objective Optimal Combination Forecast of Post-construction Settlement of Embankment

LAI Tian-wen1,2(1.School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;2.School of Civil Engineering and mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)  
The post-construction settlement prediction is an important problem in the roadbed construction.Because the normal prediction methods based on observation data have different applicabilities and disadvantages,the combination forecast can synthetically utilize the information provided by different methods to improve the precision of prediction.Optimal combination forecasting method is modeled on the highest of the forecast precision and the best forecasting precision stability.Based on observed data from the second line of Lanzhou-Wuwei Railway,the fitting precision and forecasting precision that are made from Xing-ye' method,the exponent method,the hyperbolic method and optimal combination forecasting method are analyzed.This case not only illustrates the optimal combination forecasting method has the higher fitting precision and forecasting precision and their stability,but also demonstrates it is feasible that the adaptability of every single forecasting method is evaluated by weight coefficient.
【CateGory Index】: U213.1
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1 WU Shaohua;CHENG Penggen;HU Zhiren;Institute of Surveying and Mapping,East China University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology and Geographical Environment Monitoring,NASMG;Nanchang Urban Planning and Design Institute;;The Research Combination Forecasting Model of Deformation Data Based on Second-Order Forecast Effective Measure with IOWGA Operator[J];大地测量与地球动力学;2016-09
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