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《Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition)》 2015-01
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Prediction of potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China based on Maxent ecological niche model

HAN Yangyang;WANG Yan;XIANG Yang;YE Jianren;Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jinangsu Province Key Laboratory for Prevention and Management of Invasive Species, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University;Shanghai Forestry Station;  
In order to understand the possible spread areas and harmful degree ofBursaphelenchus xylophilusin China, aprediction of potential geographical distribution ofB. xylophiluswas conducted by using the maximum entropy(Maxent)ecological niche models and combining with geographic information system(ArcGis). The results showed that the poten-tial distribution ofB. xylophilusmainly concentrated in eastern China and southern China, and the southern parts of northChina and north-east China and southwest China were middle or low suitable areas. The other parts of China were unsuit-able areas. In suitable distribution areas, as long as pine host trees appeared, other environment condition wouldsatisfied the occurance of the disease. Results of ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve) evaluation showed thattraining data of predicted suitable distribution areas by Maxent ecological niche models and AUC(areas under curve) oftesting data were 0.987 and 0.986, respectively. The precision of prediction was extremely high. A jackknife test in Max-ent showed that temperature was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of this pest species.
【Fund】: 上海市绿化管理局2011年科研项目(JB119927)
【CateGory Index】: S763.18
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