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《Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University》 2006-03
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Research on regional arable land quantity security with the acceleration growth of economy:a case study of Qingdao City

HE Ge~1,2,OU Ming-hao~1* (1.College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;2.College of Economy and Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Ya′an 625014,China)  
Such econometrics models as ARIMA,dual logarithm,and virtual variables were used to account how the population,the level of urbanization,the demand for food,the policy of arable land protection and its effect affect arable quantity security of Qingdao City with the acceleration growth of economy.The research results show that the population of Qingdao City increase 46.5 thousands annually with the increase of population at the ratio of 0.65%,it will reach to 7 743.4 thousand,1 751.09 hectares arable lands should be increased annually to satisfy food requirement of newly-born people in the coming 10 years.With the increase of urbanization at 1 percent in the past 20 years annually,the arable land of Qingdao was reduced 6.3 thousand hectares accordingly.It will be reduced to 484.3 thousand hectares in 2005,and 383.7 thousand hectares in 2010.The well-off consuming level requires the least leavings of arable land is 486.0 thousand hectares in 2010 and 501.2 thousand hectares in 2015,as well as the rich level requires the least leavings of arable land is 540.0 thousand hectares and 556.9 thousand hectares.Although new land management law has been carried,the condition of the arable quantity security is not so ideal.On the basis of those,some countermeasures are put forward to realize arable quantity security of Qingdao City.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70373020)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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