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《Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology》 2009-02
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Experiments of Multi-model Short-range Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecasts

CHEN Chao-hui1,WANG Tie1,TAN Yan-ke1,LI Chong-yin1,2,XU Yuan-chun1(1.Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)  
Experiments of 15 ensemble members are performed by using AREM,MM5 and WRF models with different model physical process parameterization schemes and identical initial values for rainy season in July 2003,and multi-model short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts are made by means of "Average","Correlation" and "Rank".Results indicate that the ensemble precipitation probability forecasts made by the three methods above-mentioned all can give accurate estimation of center and region of the precipitation,and the "Rank" is superior to the "Average" and "Correlation" for performing better in forecasting the areas,intensity and boundary of precipitation but the other two expand improper areas.Evaluation results of ranked probability score(RPS),Brier score(BS) and relative operating characteristic(ROC) show there is little difference in a certain critical grade precipitation of the "Rank" results and that of the other two,but for synthetic effect of someday in the rainy season the "Rank" surpasses the "Average" method and "Correlation" method obviously.The higher score of RPS and every grade BS for the heavier and wider precipitation case means that multi-model short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts are a challenge.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40405010)
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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