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《System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture》 2010-01
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The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources Variation During the Past 50 Years in Qerchen

YANG Ling1,Wahap HALIK1,2,Muattar SAYDI1 (1. College of Resource and Environment Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China; 2. Lab for Oasis Ecosystem of Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)  
In this article,the change of water resources and its related factors during the 50 years in Qerchen County were studied by applying the method of both correlation and principal component analysis via using the meteorological,hydrological,and socioeconomic data. Results indicated that during the past 50 years the total water resources of Qerchen county did not occur dramatic change while annual change of it is obvious. At the same time,human activities are more frequent and average annual precipitation and temperatures are showing the tendency of rising. The results of principal component analysis indicated that cumulative contribution of first and second factor reached more than 80% ,of which first factor can be explain as human activity,and second factor as climatic factors. All men- tioned above we can come to the conclusion that human activity has great impact on water resources change compared with climate change.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40761021);; 2007年度人事部留学人员择优重点项目
【CateGory Index】: P467;TV213.4
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