Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering》 2010-07
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Long-term runoff forecast method based on dynamic adjustment particle swarm optimizer algorithm and Holt-Winters linear seasonal model

Shi Biao1,Li Yuxia1,Yu Xinhua2,Niu Yanli1(1.Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China;2.Technical Institute of High Vocation,QingDao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 261000,China)  
To improve the reservoir long-term runoff forecast accuracy and speed,dynamic adjustment particle swarm optimizer algorithm(DAPSO) was proposed.Prediction function of Holt-Winters(H-W) linear seasonal model was used to deal with runoff forecast,the combination parameters of Holt-Winters linear seasonal model was solved and optimized by using DAPSO algorithm.The hybrid algorithm of the dynamic adjustment particle swarm optimizer algorithm and Holt-Winters linear seasonal model was developed.It can automatically determine the parameters of the Holt-Winters linear seasonal model.The long-term runoff forecast model was formed based on the hybrid algorithm.The reservoir long-term runoff forecast was carried out by using the method and history runoff data.The result shows the convergence of method was faster and forecast accuracy was more accurate than that of the particle swarm optimizer algorithm-H-W model and Holt-Winters linear seasonal model.The method improves forecast accuracy and forecast capacity of the H-W linear seasonal model.It had a high computational precision,and in 95% of confidence level the average percentage error was not more than 6%.The hybrid algorithm model can successfully improve the reservoir long-term runoff forecast accuracy and speed problem in Shiquan Reservoir.The model has better prediction accuracy and may be used for long-term runoff prediction of the reservoirs and rivers.
【Fund】: 国家火炬计划基金(07C26213711606);; 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(SJ08E220);; 山东省软科学基金(2009RKB190);; 西安理工大学优秀博士学位论文和科学研究基金(106-210912 106-210917)
【CateGory Index】: P338
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 YU Guo-rong1,YE Hui,2,XIA Zi-qiang3,ZHAO Xiao-yong4(1.Faculty of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650051,China;2.Pulandian Water Resources Investigation and Design Institute of Dalian City,Pulandian 116200,China;3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;4.Yantai Water Conservancy Bureau,Yantai 264000,China);Application of projection pursuit auto regression model in predicting runoff of Yangtze River[J];Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences);2009-03
2 SHI Biao1,LI Yu-xia1,YU Xin-hua2,YAN Wang1(1.Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710048,China;2.Technical Institute of High Vocation,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 261000,China);Short-term load forecast based on modified particle swarm optimizer and back propagation neural network model[J];Journal of Computer Applications;2009-04
3 RAN Du-kui1,2,LI Min3,WU Sheng1,4,XIE Jian-cang11.Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China 2.Hanjiang Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd,Danjiangkou,Hubei 442700,China 3.Northwest Investigation and Design Institute,Xi’an 710065,China 4.Northwest Electric Power Design Institute,Xi’an 710075,China;Application of ANN in study of hysteretic nature of factors influencing inflow runoff[J];Computer Engineering and Applications;2009-30
4 ZHANG Xiaowei,SHEN Bing,HUANG Lingmei(Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology,MOE at XAUT,Xi'an 710048);Grey self-memory model based on BP neural network for annual runoff prediction[J];Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering;2009-01
5 HUANG Guo-ru, RUI Xiao-fang (College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China);Study advances in diagnosis of chaotic behaviour and its prediction for rainfall and streamflow time series in watershed[J];Advances In Water Science;2004-02
6 GAO Long-hua~1,2(1.Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;2.Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute,Guangzhou 510611,China);Model of human driving force affecting the evolvement of runoff[J];Journal of Hydraulic Engineering;2006-09
7 QU Ya-ling, ZHOU Jian-zhong, LIU Fang, YANG Jun-jie, LI Ying-hai (College of Hydropower and Digital Engineering, Huazhong Science University, Wuhan 430074, China);Medium-and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Based on Improved Elman Neural Network[J];Journal of China Hydrology;2006-01
8 TAO Feng-ling1,WU Sheng2,YU Sheng-cai1,XIAO Bo2(1.Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;2.Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China);Longyangxia Runoff Forecasting Based on LS-SVM[J];Journal of China Hydrology;2008-04
9 GUO Chun,LI Zuo-yong,DANG Yuan (College of Resource and Environment,Chengdu University of Information and Technology,Chengdu 610225,China);Runoff prediction application of BP neural network model based on immune evolutionary algorithm[J];Water Resources Protection;2009-05
10 WANG Yong~1,ZHANG Gang~1,Pei-Chann Chang~2 (1.School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;2.School of Information, Yuan Ze University,Taiwan 32026,China);Improved algorithm of evolutionary programming and its application research on optimization of ordering plan[J];Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice;2009-06
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LIANG Chun-ling et al(School of Population,Resources and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan,Shandong 250014);Water Security Evaluation of Nansi Lake[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2009-07
2 HUANG Guang-hong(Susong County Diaoyutai Reservoir Administration Institute,Anhui 246500,China);Using fuzzy set analysis method to make a division for Diaoyutai Reservoir's flood season[J];Journal of Anhui Technical College of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power;2005-04
3 Jia Dongxu(Northeast China Power Dispatching and Communication Center, Shenyang 110006, China);METHOD OF IMPROVING WATER POWER UTILIZATION RATE AT HYDROPOWER STATIONS[J];Dam Observation and Geotechnical Tests;2002-02
4 MO Chong-xun, LI Xi, FAN Xin-yi;Study on application of grey relation analysis method in river water quality appraisal[J];Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China;2007-01
5 Chen Shouyu,Jiang Yie (Dept. of Civil Engineering,DUT) (Dept. of Applied Mathematics, DUT);Principle of multi-objective hierarchial evaluation method of water resources plans[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1991-01
6 Xu Shiguo, Chen Shouyu (Dept. of Civil Engineering, DUT);Methodological effects of fuzzy mathematics in field of engineering and technology[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1991-06
7 Chen Shougu (Dept. of Civil Engineering, DUT );Basic theory of fuzzy hydrology and its application[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1992-02
8 Zhou Huicheng, Chen Shouyu (Dept. of Civil Engineering, DUT );General model for selecting optimum operating depths in consideration of elastic constraints for cascade hydropower stations[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1992-05
9 Qiu Lin, Chen Shouyu (Dept. of Civil Engineering,DUT);Relative benefit maximum criterion and fuzzy optimization model of multi-purpose reservoir operation[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1993-04
10 Chen Shouyu (Dept. of Civil Engineering, DUT);Research on concept, characteristics and decision-making technique of open complex water megasystems[J];Journal of Dalian University of Technology;1993-05
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 XU Zhong min, LAN Yong chao, CHENG Guo dong (State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, CAREERI, CAS, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China);A Study on Runoff Forecast by Aritifical Neural Network Model[J];Journal of Glaciolgy and Geocryology;2000-04
2 SHI Ya feng 1, SHEN Yong ping 1, HU Ru ji 2(1.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China; 2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Scie;Preliminary Study on Signal, Impact and Foreground of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China[J];Journal of Glaciolgy and Geocryology;2002-03
3 WANG Bo,WANG Chan-lin,LIANG Guo-qiang(Naval Aeronautical Engineering Institute,Yantai 264001,China);D-S algorithm based on particle swarm optimizer[J];Transducer and Microsystem Technologies;2007-01
4 NI Chang?jian, DING Jing, LI Zuo?yong(Dept. of Hydraulic Eng., Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065,China);Immune evolutionary algorithm and its application to parametersoptimization in storm intensity formula[J];Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute;2002-06
5 Cheng Qiyun1 Sun Caixin1 Zhang Xiaoxing1 Zhou Quan1 Du peng2 (1. Chongqing University Chongqing 400044 China 2. China Sothern Power Grid Co.LTD Guangzhou 510620 China);Short-Term Load Forecasting Model and Method for Power System Based on Complementation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2004-10
6 Zhang Zhiyi Chen Yunping Yuan Rongxiang (Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China);Hybrid Genetic Algorithm for Power System Load Restoration[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2007-02
7 LUO Xianxiang, DENG Wei, HE Yan, Luan Zhaoqing(Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China);Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2002-05
8 HONG Shizhong (Seismological Bureau of Chengdu, Chengdu 610015,China);NONLINEAR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO GEOSCIENCE[J];ADVANCE IN EARTH SCIENCES;1999-06
9 QIN Da he 1,2 , DIN Yi hui 2,WANG Shao wu 3,WANG Su ming 4, DONG Guang rong 1, LIN Er da 5,LIU Chun zhen 6,SHE Zhi xiang 4, SUN Hui nan 7, WANG Shou rong 2, WU Guang he 8 (1.Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Res;ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN WEST CHINA AND ITS RESPONSE STRATEGY[J];Advance In Earth Sciences;2002-03
10 XIA Jun1, SUN Xuetao2, TAN Ge1(1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;2.General Office of the Ministry of Water Resources of P.R.C, Beijing 100053, China);THE PROGRESS AND PROSPECT OF WATER CYCLE STUDY IN WESTERN CHINA[J];Advance In Earth Sciences;2003-01
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved