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《Periodical of Ocean University of China》 2013-10
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Sea Surface Temperature Prediction Indices for the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

HUANG Shao-Ni;HUANG Fei;Shanxi Meteorological Observatory;Physical Oceanography Laboratory & Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong,Ocean University of China;  
With the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)data,the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)onset index Uscs defined by Wang et al.(2004)is selected to define the onset date of individual years during 1979—2009.According to the correlation between the SCSSM onset time and the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA),two SSTA indies have been defined.The area mean SSTA over tropical western Pacific(0°~20°N,125°E~155°E)has been defined as WP index(WPI),while the area averaged SSTA over the central equatorial Pacific(5°S~5°N,180°~135°W)has been defined as the CEP index(CEPI).Define the objective standard(1)WPI and CEPI must keep opposite phase from previous September to the next March,and no transformation happened to WPI;(2)the absolute value of the averaged monthly(from previous September to the next March)WPI must greater than or equal to 0.2;(3)When satisfy criterions(1)and(2),The SCSSM may set up late when WPI and CEPI distribute in the second quadrant(WPI0and CEPI0),while the SCSSM may set up early when they distribute in fourth quadrant(WPI0and CEPI0);(4)When the two indices are located in the first and third quadrant(WPI×CEPI0),the SCSSM may set on normally,satisfying(1)but not(2)the SCSSM also set on more normally.The two indices have been applied to predict 2010,2011and 2012SCSSM onset time reasonably.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40975038);; 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955604);; 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GY-HY200906008);; 陕西省气象局博士基金项目(2012B-3)资助
【CateGory Index】: P732
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