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《Advances in Climate Change Research》 2007-05
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An Analysis of Climate Change in East Asia by Using the IPCC AR4 Simulations

Xu Chonghai1,2,Shen Xinyong1,Xu Ying2(1 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)  
Using the CRU monthly data of the surface mean temperature and precipitation,and the output data of 22 AOGCMs participated in IPCC AR4,the preliminary analysis of AOGCM?s simulated capability in East Asia for the 20th century has been evaluated in this paper. The results indicate that there are large differences among GCMs,although GCMs have a certain capability to simulate current climate over East Asia. Compared with the single model,the ensemble mean is better. In general,the simulated temperature is lower,and the simulated precipitation is higher than the observations. According to both analyses of spatial distribution of 20-year mean and the time series of the 20th century,the result of simulated temperature is better than that of simulated precipitation.
【Fund】: 中国气象局2006年气候变化专项;; 国家科技部应用重大基础研究前期研究专项“气候-植被-土壤-水文耦合模式研究及其在新安江流域的应用”(2003CCC00300)资助
【CateGory Index】: P435
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