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《CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH》 2000-02
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Time Dependence of the Forecast Skills of IAP ENSO Prediction System and the Forecasts for the 1999's La Nia

Zhou Guangqing and Zeng Qingcun (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)  
The time-dependence of the forecast skills of IAP ENSO Prediction System was analyzed based on the hindcasts for the period from November 1981 to December 1997. The results indicated that the forecast system showed the higher skills for the ENSOs in 1980s than that in 1990s. The correlation coefficients in Nino 3 region were near 0 8 at a lead time of about one and half years in 1980s, while it reduced to about 0 4 after a half year in advance in 1990s. The seasonal-dependence was also shown that the forecasts initiated from spring to autumn were more skillful with the correlation skills above 0 5 maintaining more than 15 months, where those initiated from July to September showed the skills above 0 6 within 16 months in advance. The skills of the prediction initiated from later autumn to winter were lower, which decreased rapidly to below 0 5 after 5 months. The near real time prediction for the 1999's La Nia event was successful in term that this event would persist to 2000, but its re-strengthening was not predicted properly. The prediction for the future shows that the cold episode conditions will return to near-normal or week-warm conditions in the later summer or autumn of this year.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目!49735160和49823002
【CateGory Index】: P45
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