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《Climatic and Environmental Research》 2003-01
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Detection and Prediction of Climate Change forthe 20th and 21st Century Due to HumanActivity in Northwest China

Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui,Xu Ying,and Zhang Jin(National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)  
Based on the simulations of seven AOGCMs (CCC, CCSR, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR), the detection of climate change in Northwest China in 20th century indicated that the obvious warming of 0.75℃/100 a and 0.88℃/50 a computed from the observed data might be attributed to both greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The control runs of all models did not provide the warming trend. But there were obvious warming trends by about 0.34~1.57℃/100 a and 0.90~1.86 ℃/50 a for both greenhouse gases experiment (GG) and greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols experiment (GS) of the AOGCMs, respectively.The predictions of climate change for 21st century in Northwest China have been conducted by using seven models. The significant warming of 2.79~4.50℃/100 a as simulated by GG and GS experiments of the AOGCMs has been predicted. The precipitation might increase by about 48~60 mm/100 a due to both greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. But there are some uncertainties that come from both global models and the varied projections.
【Fund】: 国家科技部社会公益研究专项资金项目“我国西北地区生态气候环境监测预测方法研究”资助
【CateGory Index】: P467
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