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《Climatic and Environmental Research》 2007-05
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The Verifications for ENSO Ensemble Prediction System

ZHENG Fei1,2,ZHU Jiang1,and WANG Hui31 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000292 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000493 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081  
The verification of the ensemble forecast results of a tropical Pacific air-sea coupled ensemble prediction system is discussed.The model of the ensemble prediction system is an intermediate coupled model.The atmospheric component is a statistical model,and the ocean component is a dynamical model.An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system is implemented to provide the initial ensemble.A first-order linear Markov stochastic model is used to represent model errors.The ensemble size is 100.The deterministic verification,including correlation and root mean square error,and the probabilistic verification,including Talagrand probability distribution,spread,Brier score (BS),and hit rate and false alarm rate are applied to the ensemble prediction system.Then some evaluations are made according to the verification results.The verifications are covering the period of 1995—2005.The deterministic verifications show that the prediction skill of the ensemble mean over the central tropical Pacific is particularly higher than that of the ensemble mean in the eastern basin and coastal region.The probabilistic verifications show that the ensemble system has relative high probabilistic skill and it is a complement to the deterministic forecast.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目40437017和40221503;; 中国科学院方向性项目KZCX2-YW-202;; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2006CB403600
【CateGory Index】: P732.4
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