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《Climatic and Environmental Research》 2007-05
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Simulation and Analysis of Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yields in Southern China

YAO Feng-Mei1,ZHANG Jia-Hua2,SUN Bai-Ni3,XU Yin-Long4,LIN Er-Da4,and MEN Yan-Zhong51 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000492 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 1000813 Heilongjiang Scientific Research Institute of Environment,Harbin 150056 4 Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081 5 Heilongjiang Science and Technology College,Harbin 150027  
This study simulates ands analyzes the impact of climate change on rice yields in Southern China using future (A2 and B2) climate scenarios data from PRECIS (Provide Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model (RCM) and crop model of irrigated rice flowering duration and yield.CERES-rice is first validated using farm experiments data in typical locations ranging in latitude,longitude,and elevation.The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of days to flowering and yields.The outputs of RCM are secondly validated through crop model.The simulated flowering duration and yield with simulated weather data from RCM.Analysis sensitivity of rice yields represents increased alone brings more great than others (middle China B2 compared to the baseline at six rice stations).Results show 1) there are increased areas.Cumulative probability is used to analyze change of rice yields under A2 and or decreased (ranging 2.3%—-10.2% under A2 scenario and 4.0%—-13.6% under B2 scenario in six rice stations).2) the probability of high or low yields year is higher than the baseline at some rice stations.Results from the impacts assessments suggest that climate change bring positive or negative impacts on averaged rice yields in various locations of study area,and high frequency being abnormal yields year compared to the baseline in some locations.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目40641003、40501049;; 科技部项目2006GB24160430、2006AA10Z213和2006BAD04B04;; 中国科学院研究生院院长基金
【CateGory Index】: S511
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