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《Meteorological Science and Technology》 2006-01
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Application of Numerical Forecast Products to Regional Rainfall Forecasting by Artificial Neural Network

Lin Jianling~1 Jin Long~2 Peng Haiyan~3(1 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;2 Guangxi Research Institute of Meteorological Disasters Mitigation,Nanning 530022;3 Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210008)  
The numerical forecast products(T213,Japanese fine grid rainfall forecast,etc.) are used in forecasting by means of the artificial neural network technology.Classification is conducted on all stations over Guangxi by use of Cluster Analysis.A large amount of valuable information about numerous factors is concentrated in terms of the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF).Three artificial neural network day-by-day regional rainfall forecast models for May and June in Guangxi Province are established in combination with the rainfall forecast of Japan.A day-by-day forecast test is carried out using the operational method.The TS(evaluation) of the three models is 0.55,0.5,0.26,respectively,for moderate rainfall prediction.These results suggest that the three artificial neural network regional rainfall forecast models perform better than the operationally used numerical forecast products—T213 and Japanese model.
【Fund】: 广西自然科学基金项目(0339025);; 国家自然科学基金项目(40075021)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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