Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Meteorological Science and Technology》 2015-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Forecast and Evaluation of Temperature Fields over Xinjiang Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Zhang Jianqi;Wang Liqing;Zuo Ruiting;Unit 95871 of PLA;Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology;  
The pentad mean temperature anomaly forecasting model of the Xinjiang area is established using Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition(EOF), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD),and Least Square Support Vector Machine(LS-SVM)methods.Using the EEMD to decompose the first three time series obtained from EOF into a series of Intrinsic Mode Function(IMF),the predicted IMF is acquired by using LS-SVM.The acquisition of pentad mean temperature anomaly is from the forecast of time series and temporal reconstruction.Ten-days mean temperature anomaly is acquired based on the pentad mean temperature anomaly,and the month mean temperature anomaly was acquired based on the 10-days mean temperature anomaly.The model using the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients(ACC),the skill score(SS)and anomaly sign score(R)are evaluated.The results show that the model worked well in the first 20 pentads with an average ACC of 0.32,average SS of 0.70,and average Rof0.50.It worked well in the first ten 10-day periods,with an average ACC of 0.50,average SS of 0.50,and average Rof 0.50.It also worked well in three months,with an average ACC of 0.50,an average SS of 0.50,and an average Rof 0.80.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41475071)资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 Zhao Yan, Lin Zhaohui, Li Xu and Yuan Chongguang (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Assessment and Comparison of Two Prediction Schemes of IAP PSSCA Part I: Precipitation[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;2000-02
2 LIU Yan-ping;YANG Jing;WANG Yong;School of Civil Engineering,Central South University;Hebei Engrneering and Technical College;Hebei Research Center of Earthquake Engineering;;Prediction of GPS water vapor based on EMD and ANN[J];Science of Surveying and Mapping;2013-05
3 ZHAI Yingjia;LI Yaohui;CHEN Yuhua;Atmospheric Science College,Lanzhou University;Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration / Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration;Ningxia Meteorological Information Center;;Major Progress of Global and China Regional Climate Change Projection[J];Journal of Arid Meteorology;2013-04
4 Liu Kefeng~(1)2)) Zhang Ren~(1)2)) Hong Mei~(1)) Yu Dandan~(1)) Wang Huizan~(1)) 1)(Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101) 2)(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 );Subtropical High Forecast Model of Least Square Support Vector Machine[J];Journal of Applied Meteorological Science;2009-03
5 Bi Shuoben~(1)) Xu Yin~(2)) Qin Zhinian~(3)) Chen Xuan~(1)) Wang Biqiang~(1)) 1)(School of Computer Science and Technology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044) 2)(School of Information and Control Technologies,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044) 3)(Climate Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022);Application of EMD to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast in Guangxi[J];Journal of Applied Meteorological Science;2010-03
6 Wang Zaiwen Zheng Zuofang Chen Min Gao Hua Institute of Urban Meteorology,CMA,Beijing 100089);Prediction of Meteorological Elements Based on Nonlinear Support Vector Machine Regression Method[J];Journal of Applied Meteorological Science;2012-05
7 DUAN Junze1,LIU Changzheng2,BAI Suqin1(1.Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China;2.National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China);Application and Test of Dynamic Extended Range Forecast Products to Monthly Precipitation Rolling Prediction in Xinjiang[J];Desert and Oasis Meteorology;2012-06
8 ZHENG Chong-wei;LIU Tie-jun;QIAN Yue-hai;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,People's Liberation Army University of Science &Technology;Meteorological Unit,NO. 92538 Army of PLA;Navy Marine Hydrometerological Center;;The relationship between sea surface wind field, wave field and El Nino in the China Sea[J];Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition);2014-02
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Zhao Yan and Guo Yufu (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Estimations of Ensemble Size for Numerical Climate Predictions[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2002-02
2 HUANG An-Ning and ZHANG Yao-CunDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;Impacts of the BATS1e Land Surface Model on the Performance of the p-σ Regional Climate Model[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2007-01
3 Tao Bing-xin,Wei Yong-juan(Jinxiu County Meteorological Service,Guangxi Laibin 545700);Periodic Overlapping Prediction Method of Summer Precipitation in Jinxiu County[J];Journal of Meteorological Research and Application;2011-02
4 ZHANG Bing;GONG Yuanfa;XU Ying;ZHANG Shuai;Chengdu University of Information Technology;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration;Squad 11 of unit 66350;;Evaluation on the Simulation of the Drought Change in China Based on Global Climate Models from CMIP5[J];Journal of Arid Meteorology;2014-05
5 Ma Jun;Lu jia;Zhao Jin-biao;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center;Guangxi Climate Center;Guangxi Meteorological Observaotion;;Application of EMD Method in Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Guangxi[J];Journal of Meteorological Research and Application;2014-03
6 LIU Yuanpu;LI Suosuo;L Shihua;GAO Yanhong;AO Yinhuan;Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction,Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction,China Meteorological Administration;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change ,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute ,Chinese Academy of Sciences;;An analysis of the changing characteristics of snowfall in the East Asia based on CMIP5[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2014-06
7 WANG Ying;LI Yao-hui;SUN Xu-ying;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Key Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration;;Impact of climate change on the eco-environment in the Yellow River Source[J];Pratacultural Science;2015-04
8 GONG Chongshui;DUAN Haixia;LI Yaohui;WANG Chenghai;REN Yulong;Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Key Laboratory of Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA;College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University;;Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation in China in the Last 30 Years by Using the Reg CM4[J];Journal of Arid Meteorology;2015-03
9 HU Xiangfeng;HAN Yang;Weather Modification Office of Hebei Province;Hebei Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment;;An Airplane Detection of Aerosol over the Middle-South of Hebei Province on Rainy Day[J];Journal of Arid Meteorology;2015-03
10 GE Yu-hui;XIONG Yong-liang;CHEN Zhi-sheng;CHEN Hong-bin;LONG Jia-lu;Department of Surveying Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University;The Third Railway Survey and Design Institute Group Corporation;;Prediction method of GPS precipitation based on wavelet neural network[J];Science of Surveying and Mapping;2015-09
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Liu Cheng;Wang Dong;Ke Zongjian;Unit NO.91913 of PLA;Unit NO.91550 of PLA;National Climate Center;;Analysis on Variation Characteristics of Dalian Temperature and impact factors based on EMD[A];[C];2014
2 LIANG Feng;LIU Dandan;WANG Wanzhao;YU Fangjian;LIU Pengfei;Chaoyang Meteorological Administration;Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Liaoning Province;;Temporal and spatial variability of summer extreme precipitation events in Northeast China during 1961-2013[A];[C];2015
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 JIANG Zhi-hong,ZHANG Xia,WANG Ji(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University ofInformation Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China);Projection of climate change in China in the 21st century by IPCC-AR4 Models[J];Geographical Research;2008-04
2 JIANG Da-Bang 1,2 WANG Hui-Jun 1 LANG Xian-Mei 1 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;EAST ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE TREND UNDER GLOBAL WARMING BACKGROUND[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;2004-04
3 ZHANG Yong~ 1,2,3,4 , XU Yin-Long~ 2 , DONG Wen-Jie~3, CAO Li-Juan~ 1,4 1 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China2 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;A preliminary analysis of distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes over China under SRES B2 scenario[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;2007-03
4 Zhang Ren (Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101 );A Diagnosis/ Prediction of the Movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High Based on the Neural Network Approximation with Forth-Propagation Style[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2001-05
5 FENG Jin-Ming and FU Cong-BinKey Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia,Beijing 100029;Inter-comparison of Long-Term Simulations of Temperature and Precipitation over China by Different Regional Climate Models[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2007-05
6 XU Xuan1,3, LU Riyu1, and SHI Ying2 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Comparison between the Results on Seasonal Evolution of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and the Driving GCM[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2011-06
7 Yang Fanglin and Yuan Chongguang (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);Numerical Experiments on the Causes of Anomalous Rainfall over the valley of the Yangtze River and Huanghe River in the Summer of 1985[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1994-06
8 Yang Fanglin and Yuan Chongguang (The Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);Numerical Experiment on the Influence of Sea-surface Temperature Anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific in Summer upon the Short-range Climate Changes over Globe and in East Asia[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1995-05
9 Tao Shiyan and Zhang Qingyun (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100080);Response of the Asian Winter and Summer Monsoon to ENSO Events[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1998-04
10 ZHANG Qiang, HAN Yong-xiang, SONG Lian-chun (Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology ,CMA,Lanzhou 730020, China);THE SUMMARIZE OF DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT FACTORS[J];Advance in Earth Sciences;2005-09
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved