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《SCIENTIA METEOROLOGICA SINICA》 2000-03
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SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALY NUMERICAL PREDICTION RESEARCH IN IAP/CAS

Yuan Chongguang Li Xu Wang Huijun Bi Xunqiang Lin Zhaohui (Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080)  
The summary of our numerical experiment on short-term climatic anomaly prediction in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chiness Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) in the last decade are introduced in the paper.We present the result and grade of a semi-operational extraseasonal summer Monsoon precipitation prediction in the last ten years,and make an initiatory inquisition on the physical bases of extraseasonal prediction,predictability,practical methods of ensemble prediction,necessity and schemes of the correction to GCMs output.We found that multiple equilibrium is possible to appear in some cases of experiments,and can be used to improve the prediction of different regions.Some discussions on the characteristics of our prediction schemes,the concerted research with statistical-empirical predictors,the difference in predictability over different regions,the choice of models,the predicted period of validity,the predicted objects,and the forecast score are also included.
【Fund】: 中国科学院重大项目;; 国家自然科学基金;; 国家科委基础研究重大关键项目;; LASG的大力支 持
【CateGory Index】: P46
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1 Yang Fanglin and Yuan Chongguang (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);Numerical Experiments on the Causes of Anomalous Rainfall over the valley of the Yangtze River and Huanghe River in the Summer of 1985[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1994-06
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