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《Scientia Meteorologica Sinica》 2007-S1
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RESEARCH ON VERY SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODEL AND METHOD OF REGIONAL DEBRIS FLOW FOR LIANGSHAN

Zhang Jinghong~(1,2) Wei Fangqiang~2 Deng Bo~3 Zeng Wenqin~3 Gu Linkang~3 (1 Hainan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,South China Sea Meteorology and Disaster Mitigation Research Key Laboratory , Haikou 570203) (2 Institute of Mountain Hazards & Environment , CAS, Chengdu 610041) (3 Liangshan Meteorological Observatory, Sichuan Xichang 615000)  
According to the analysis and study of courses of debris flow disaster formation,various in- dices in the forecast model are confirmed.Different data of static and dynamic influence indices,which lead to debris flow,and their getting method are discussed in this paper.Very short range forecast model and method of middle and small-scale regional debris flow are studied in detail.Liangshan where debris flow disaster is very serious is selected as study area.Using extension theory,based on precipitation data provid- ed directly from meteorological bureau,a very short range forecast model of regional debris flow is set up. Under the support of GIS technology,a very short range forecast system for Liangshan is developed.
【Fund】: 中国科学院山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目(编号:C_320307);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目“泥石流预应用系统研制”(编号:KZCX3-SW-352)
【CateGory Index】: P642.23
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