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《Meteorological Monthly》 2004-06
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Study on Drought Forecast in Liaoning Province

Sun Fenghua Yuan Jian (Institute of Atmospheric Environment,CMA,Shenyang 110016)  
Based on the annual precipitation data of five meteorological observation stations (Shenyang, Dalian, Dandong, Yingkou, Chaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1953 to 2001, precipitation set is set up, the precipitation variation is analyzed. Annual precipitation showed an obvious reducing trend. According to the set, a drought catastrophe set is rebuilt. With the grey system model GM(1,1), the drought forecast problem in the five areas is discussed. The test show that the forecast effect is prefer with the data from 1996 to 2001.
【Fund】: 科技部公益类专项“气候变暖对东北极端气候事件影响”项目资助
【CateGory Index】: P467
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