Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Meteorological Monthly》 2007-12
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression

Xu Jing1,2 Zhang Guoping1 Zhang Fanghua1 Qi Dan1(1.National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)  
Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards is constructed based on Logistic regression of the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences.Dynamic forecasting of the probability of rainfall-induced geological hazard occurrence is thus realized.Rainfall observations and numerical rainfall forecasts are used as dynamical inputs of the model.Total information produced by information model that integrates factors of geosciences is used as the static predictor of the model.The model forecasts probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on a grid,and releases warning messages in the form of a 5-level hierarchy.Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geolog-ical hazards of the year have been identified as Warning Level 3 or above.The operation of the model during the rainy season of the year 2006 has made forecasts and warnings with high accuracy for geological hazards triggered by Typhoon Bilis.All these show that the model can satisfy the requirements of warning operations,and is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.
【Fund】: 中国气象局气象新技术推广基金(CMATG2004M05)资助
【CateGory Index】: P694
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved