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《Meteorological Monthly》 2012-08
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Verification and Assessment of the Forecasting of Influence System in Xinjiang by T639 Model Products

JIA Lihong~1 ZHANG Huilan~1 XIAO Kaiti~2 TANG Hao~1 1 Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002 2 Xinjiang Meteorological Society.Urumqi 830002  
Based on the T639 model data(1°X 1°) of 72 h height field from 2009 to 2010 and the objective analysis data of ECMWF from September 2007 to February 2008 as well as the classification of synoptic system in Xinjiang,the forecast products were validated by synoptic verification method in terms of start time,intensity of system center,position of trough line,and the moving velocity of synoptic system.The results indicate that the forecast of synoptic system in Xinjiang is accurate based on T639 model,especially for 48 h forecasts.Forecast ability is different because of the difference of influence system and prediction time.The deeper the upper level trough,the better.The start time of synoptic system had an earlier prediction to West Siberian trough and Ural trough,and just the opposite for northern transversal trough and central Asia low-pressure system.The position of trough line had a faster moving prediction to West Siberian trough and central Asia low-pressure system,and just the opposite for northern transversal trough and Ural trough.
【Fund】: 中国气象局气象关键技术集成项目(CMAGJ2011M57);; 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106007);; 新疆气象局业务新技术(YX200918)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456
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