Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Meteorological Monthly》 2013-01
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Study on the Method of Rainfall Ensemble Probability Forecast Based on Bayesian Theory and Its Preliminary Experiments

HAN Yanhong~1 JIAO Meiyan~2 CHEN Jing~3 CHEN Fajing~3 1 School of Atmospheric Science.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 2 China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 3 CMA Numerical Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081  
The paper applies BPO(Bayesian Processor of Output) method based on Bayesian theory to the method of rainfall ensemble probability forecast.Using ensemble prediction data and historical observational data,we develop a rainfall probability forecast model,and then revise a set of precipitation predicted value into a set of Bayesian precipitation probability forecast in the form of continuous probability distribution or continuous probability density.Besides,we obtain a group value of Informativeness Score(IS), which can express the prediction ability of each ensemble member.Furthermore,we fuse the probability forecast results of each member into an integration Bayesian precipitation probability forecast on the basis of IS and test the results with Continuous Ranked Probablity Score(CRPS).Experiment results show that the reliability of integration Bayesian precipitation probability forecast is higher than ensemble direct probability forecast.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(41075035)资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 6 Hits
1 CHEN Fajing1 JIAO Meiyan2 CHEN Jing3 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing210044,China 2.China Meteorological Administration,Beijing100081,China 3.National Meteorological Center,Beijing100081,China;The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of Forecast and its preliminary experiments[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2011-05
2 JIAO Meiyan China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;Modernization Process of Weather Forecast[J];Meteorological Monthly;2010-07
3 DU Jun~1 CHEN Jing~2 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,DC,U.S.A. 2 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;The Corner Stone in Facilitating the Transition from Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts-Ensemble Forecasting and Its Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction[J];Meteorological Monthly;2010-11
4 CHEN Fajing~1 JIAO Meiyan~2 CHEN Jing~3 1 College of Atmospheric Sciences.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology.Nanjing 210044 2 China Meteorological Administration.Beijing 100081 3 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;A New Scheme of Calibration of Ensemble Forecast Products Based on Bayesian Processor of Output and Its Study Results for Temperature Prediction[J];Meteorological Monthly;2011-01
5 WANG Donghai~1 DU Jun~2 LIU Chongjian~1 1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington D.C.,U.S.A.20230;Recognizing and Dealing with the Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts[J];Meteorological Monthly;2011-04
6 Chen Jing 1) Chen Dehui 1) \ \ Yan Hong 2) 1) (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081) 2) (China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081);A BRIEF REVIEW ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM[J];Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorlolgy;2002-04
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Li Fan-qun;Estimate of Pareto distribution paremeter under Entropy Loss[J];Journal of Anhui Vocational College of Electronics & Information Technology;2006-01
2 WANG Yi-jing,HUA Shou-liang (Anyang Institute of Technology,the department of mathematics and physics,Anyang 455000 Ghina);Normal Population Variance of the Bayesian Interval Estimation[J];Journal of Anyang Institute of Technology;2011-06
3 ZHANG Wei,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China);Probabilistic Distribution of Rock & Soil Parameters by Using Expert's Information Fusion Method[J];Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering;2005-06
4 Ma Chaofeng,Li Xiao,Cheng Guowen,He Jianming(Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China);Optimization of Rock Mass Dynamic Classification of Large Span Road Tunnel Based on Bayes[J];Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering;2011-02
5 MAO Wei-yi1,WANG Tie1,JIANG Yuan-an1,WANG Jin2,LI Hong-de2(1.Xinjiang Climate Center,rümqi Xinjiang 830002,China;2.Aksu Hydrological and Water ResourceBureau,Aksu Xinjiang 843000,China);The Elements of the Prophase Atmospheric Indexes Which Influence the Annual Runoff in the Aksu River[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2007-02
6 SU Yan (Department of Information and Calculation Science,NCEPU,Baoding,071003,China);The Development and Argument of Bayesian Statistics[J];Journal of Baoding Teachers College;2003-02
7 WANG Wei~1,WANG Jun-bo~2,HUANG Jing-de~2(1.Institute of Application Mathematics and Mechanics,Ordnance Engineering College,Shijiazhuang 050003,Hebei,China;2.Department of Ammunition Engineering,Ordnance Engineering College,Shijiazhuang 050003,Hebei,China);Analysis and Improvement of Secondary Sampling Plan of the Reliability[J];Acta Armamentarii;2006-02
8 Yang Jun Huang Jin Shen Lijuan Zhao Yu (Dept.of System Engineering of Engineering Technology,Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Beijing 100191,China);Bayes comprehensive assessment of reliability for binomial products by using test information of similar product[J];Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;2009-07
9 YANG Zhenbo, HE Jiquan, LI Chenhua, ZHU Min, MEI Xueping, ZHANG Yugang 1) Material Science and Engineering School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China 2) Chinese Radio International, Beijing 100040, China;Corrosion Severity Assessment of Reinforcing Steel in Concrete by Using Three Electrochemical Factors[J];Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing;2003-02
10 CHEN Hao-ming1,CHEN Ying-bao2,LI Kai-can3(1.Central Normal University,Maths and statistics College,Wuhan 430079,China;2.Central Normal University,Maths and statistics College,Wuhan 430079,China;3.HuBei Normal University,Huangshi,Maths Department,China Huangshi 435002,China);Some Posterior Distributions of Parameters in Normal Linear Model and Their Sampling Method under Couter χ~2 Distribution[J];Journal of Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication;2008-02
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Ma Chaofeng,Li Xiao,Cheng Guowen,He Jianming (Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China);Optimization of Rock Mass Dynamic Classification of Large Span Road Tunnel Based on Bayes[A];[C];2012
2 He Xiangdong Zhang Yimin Wen Bangchun (College of Mechanical Engineering and Automation,Dalian Polytechnic University,Dalian 116034) (College of Mechanical Engineering and Automation,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004);Bayesian Structure System Reliability-Based Robust Design Under Correlated Failure Modes[A];[C];2009
3 Fei Liu,Tong Wang,Lianghai Lv,Guang Bai Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection,Beijing 100054,China;Quantitative Risk Analysis for Fire Accidents of Urban Gas Fuel Transmission Pipeline[A];[C];2010
4 Fan Jiancong Liang Yongquan Tang Leiyu Zeng Qingtian (College of information science and technology,Shandong university of science and technology,Qingdao 266510,China);Novel token group model and its application in data mining[A];[C];2007
5 ;An approach of Bayes assessment on the reliability of exponential products[A];[C];2005
6 Jiao Meiyan, Qian Chuanhai, Bi Baogui (National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081);The Brief Review on the Weather Forcasting Jiao Meiyan Qian Chuanhai Bi Baogui[A];[C];2002
7 CHEN Jing1 XUE Jishang2 YAN Hong3 1)(Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610071) 2)(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Bejing 100081) 3) (World Meteorological Organization Geneva , Switzerland );A New Initial Perturbation Method of Ensemble Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Prediction[A];[C];2006
8 Kong Rong Wang Jianjie ( Chinese Academy of Meterological Sciences ,Beijing 100081; Beijing Meterological Bureau,Beijing 100081);Diagnosis and Investigation on Simulation Errors of An Southern Torrential Rain Case[A];[C];2006
9 Mao Wei-yi1,Tan Yan-mei2,Li Xin-jian3 ( 1. Xinjiang Climate center, Urumqi 830002;2. XInjinag Meteorological Observation,Urumqi 830002; 3. Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002);Study on prediction of the heat index of cotton seeding period in Northern Xinjiang[A];[C];2007
10 MAO Wei-yi1, WANG Tie1, JIANG Yuan-an1, Wang Jin2,LI Hong-de2 (1. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830002; 2. Akesu Hydrological and Water Resource Measurement Bereau, Akesu, Xinjiang, 843000);Study on the factors of the former Atmospheric indexes influenced Annual Runoff in the Aksu River[A];[C];2008
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 CHEN Jing~1, XUE Ji-Shan~2, and YAN Hong~31 Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610071 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 3 World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland;A New Initial Perturbation Method of Ensemble Mesoscale Heavy Rain Prediction[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2005-05
2 LI Jun~1,DU Jun~2,WANG Ming-huan~1,CUI Chun-guang~1 (1.Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430074,China; 2.National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA,Washington DC USA);Experiments of Perturbing Initial Conditions in the Development of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System for Heavy Rainstorm Forecasting[J];Plateau Meteorology;2009-06
3 Yu Xiaoding Zhang Yiping (China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081);Relationship Between Weather Prediction Skill and Its Economic Value[J];;2004-06
4 Zhou Xiuji(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081);ATMOSPHERIC STOCHASTIC DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2005-05
5 Zhang Dalin(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,University of Maryland,College Park,Maryland 20742,U.S.A.);AN OVERVIEW OF CENTENARY ADVANCES AND PROSPECTS IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2005-05
6 CHEN Chaohui LI Chongyin TAN Yanke WANG Tie 1.Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China 2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Research of the multi-model super-ensemble prediction based on cross- validation[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2010-04
7 Fan Xingang (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093);A GLOBAL STUDY ON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION METHOD[J];ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA;1999-01
8 Liu Jinda (National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081);Ensemble Prediction Ushered in New Era in Numerical Weather Prediction[J];METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY;2000-06
9 Mao Hengqing Wang Jianjie (National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081);The Operational Use of Ensemble Prediction Products and Its Future[J];METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY;2000-06
10 Li Zechun Bi Baogui Zhu Tong Wang Youheng Niu Ruoyun (National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081);Advances in Operational Weather Forecast in China[J];Meteorological Monthly;2004-12
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved