Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Meteorological Monthly》 2013-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Analysis on Forecasting Errors and Associated Circulations of Sudden Typhoon Track Changes During 2005—2010

NI Zhongping~1 WU Liguang~1 ZHANG Ling~2 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.Nanjing 210044 2 Typhoon and Ocean Prediction Centre.China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081  
The forecast errors and associated surrounding flows of sudden typhoon track changes in the western North Pacific during 2005—2010 are examined in this study.By analyzing the forecasts of National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration,it is found that the mean 24h and 48h forecast errors for the sudden north-turning cases are significantly large while the forecasts of sudden west-turning cases are close to the average forecasting levels.For the sudden northward change,compared to the average forecast errors,the mean 24 h and 48 h forecast errors are 145.6 km and 317.3 km respectively, increasing by 29.3%and 68.3%.Further composite analysis on the circulations shows that there are clear differences in the westward extension of the low-frequency component of the subtropical high and the synoptic-scale wind fields associated with the tropical cyclones with sudden track changes.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2009CB421503)资助
【CateGory Index】: P444
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 5 Hits
1 Wang Bin 1) , Russell L Elsberry 2) , Wang Yuqing 3) and Wu Liguang 1) 1)(Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA) 2)(Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, US;Dynamics in Tropical Cyclone Motion: A Review[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1998-04
2 XU Yinglong ZHANG Ling GAO Shuanzhu National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;The Advances and Discussions on China Operational Typhoon Forecasting[J];Meteorological Monthly;2010-07
3 XU Yinglong National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081;Forecast Analysis on the Abrupt Northward Recurvature of Super Typhoon Megi(1013)[J];Meteorological Monthly;2011-07
4 He Zhong; Hu Situan; Zhang Rulin(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080);A Diagnosis-Predict Method of Sudden Change in Typhoon Track and Its Test Results in 1994[J];METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY;1995-08
5 ZHANG Jiao-yan1,WU Li-guang1,ZHANG Qiang2 (1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210044,China; 2.National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China);TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF GLOBAL WARMING[J];Journal of Tropical Meteorology;2011-04
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 SHEN Long et al(Suzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Suzhou,Anhui 234000);Cause Analysis on Jianghuai Rainstorm Caused by NO.1006 Typhoon "Lion Rock"[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-02
2 TIAN Hua1,2 and LI Chong-Yin1,3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of At-mospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Editorial Board of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing 100029, China 3 Institute of Meteorology, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;Further Study of Typhoon Tracks and the Low-Frequency (30-60 Days) Wind-Field Pattern at 850 hPa[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2010-06
3 HU Yamin~1 SONG Lili~2 LIU Aijun~1 (1 Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510080; 2 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA,Guangzhou 510080);The Comparison of Climatic Characters for Tropical Cyclone Landfall over the Different Regions in China[J];Atmospheric Science Research and Application;2008-01
4 YU Yu-Bin1,YANG Chang-Xian2,and YAO Xiu-Ping11 China Meteorological Administration Training Center,Beijing 1000812 Meteorological Observatory of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203;The Vertical Structure Characteristics Analysis on Abrupt Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclone over the Offshore of China[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2007-05
5 WANG Lei, CHEN Guanghua, and HUANG Ronghui Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;Quantitative Analysis on Large Scale Circulation System Modulating Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Diverse Chinese Regions[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2009-05
6 CHEN Guang-hua,HUANG Rong-hui(Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China);Research on Climatological Problems of Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Activity in Western North Pacific[J];Advances in Earth Science;2006-06
7 HUANG Li-li (Guangdong Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080,China);Analysis on Characteristics of Two Tropical Cyclones with Fast Movement,Strong Intensity and Similar Track[J];Guangdong Meteorology;2010-05
8 Deng Hanqing1,Guo Pinwen1,Xue Rongkang2,Min Yuqiu3(1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing,210044;2.Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau,Liuzhou Guangxi,545001;3 Beijing Hua Feng Weather audio&video Information Group,Beijing,100081);Relationship between Summer Latent Heat in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Intensity of Western North Pacific Typhoon[J];Journal of Meteorological Research and Application;2010-01
9 Lin Jin-gan1,2,Shen Xin-yong1,wu Qi-shu2(1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;2.Fuzhou Municipal Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350014);Diagnosis and Numerical Simulation of the Unusual Track of Meigi(1013)[J];Journal of Meteorological Research and Application;2012-01
10 Duan Yihong1,Chen Lianshou2,Xu Yinglong1,Qian Chuanhai1(1.National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China);The status and suggestions of the improvement in the typhoon observation,forecasting and warning systems in China[J];Engineering Sciences;2012-09
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 6 Hits
1 Chen Xiqiul,Gong Daliang2 PLA 61876 Units,Sanya,China 572000;Operation and Management Measures of Navigation Satellite Ground Station in Typhoon[A];[C];2011
2 Xiang Jie Wu Rong-sheng (Key Laboratury of Meso-Scale Severe Wather/MOE, Department of Atmospher Sciences) Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093,China);The effects of asymmetric wind structures of tropical cyclones on their tracks[A];[C];2003
3 YUAN Xiaochao,TAN Jiqing,Zhen Zhaoxia (Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310027,China);The Diagnostic Analysis Of Intensity Sudden Change Of Typhoon Damrey[A];[C];2010
4 Jian Cao,Liguang Wu,and Weiyu Pan (Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210044,China);Simulation of the Seasonal Activity of Northern West Pacific Tropical Cyclones during July-September 2006[A];[C];2011
5 Ruifang Wang,Liguang Wu and Chao Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Typhoon Track Changes Associated with Global Warming[A];[C];2011
6 Yuan Su and Liguang Wu(Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210044,China);Analysis of the Multi-time scales Circulation Influnces on the Track of Typhoon Haitang (2005)[A];[C];2012
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 GONG Dao-yi , HE Xue-zhao (Laboratory for Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Research, Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875. China: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul;Interdecadal Change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and Climatic Effects[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2002-02
2 Chen Lian-shou (Central Meteorological Observatory);ON THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON TRACKS WHICH TURNING DIRECTION WESTWARD SUDDENLY OVER THE SEA AREA NEAR THE EASTERN CHINA[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;1979-03
3 Wang Jizhi (Beijing Meteorological Center People's Republic of China)Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. (NOAA, NWS, National Hurricane Center Coral Gables, Florida, U. S. A.);A MAJOR LOW-LEVEL CROSS-EQUATORIAL CURRENT AT 110° E DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER AND ITS RELATION TO TYPHOON ACTIVITIES[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;1984-04
4 Chen Lianshou and Meng Zhiyong (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Setences, Beijing 100081);An Overview on Tropical Cyclone Research Progress in China during the Past Ten Years[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2001-03
5 ZHANG Sheng-Jun,CHEN Lian-Shou,and Xu Xiang-DeState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;The Diagnoses and Numerical Simulation on the Unusual Track of Helen(9505)[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2005-06
6 Chen Lianshou 1) , Xu Xiangde 1) , Xie Yiyang 2) and Li Wenhong 1) 1) (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) 2) (Tianjing Meteorological Institute, Tianjing 300074);The Effect of Tropical Cyclone Asymmetric Thermodynamic Structure on Its Unusual Motion[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1997-01
7 Meng Zhiyong, Xu Xiangde and Chen Lianshou (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081);Mechansism of the Impact of the Cyclone System Induced by the Taiwan Island Topography on Tropical Cyclone Unusual Motion[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1998-02
8 Zhai Guoqing Gao Kuo Yuan Jun Ruan Xiaojian Pan Xiaofan (Department of Geography of Hangzhou University, Hangzhou 310028);A Diagnostic Study of Abrupt Turning Westward of Typhoon Tracks[J];JOURNAL OF HANGZHOU UNIVERSITY(NATURE SCIENCE);1996-03
9 Huang Jiangling (Teacher Coll., Jinei Univ., Xiamen 361021);The Influence of Crossing-Equatorial Flaw on Typhoon and Tropical depression Weather System[J];JOURNAL OF JIMEI UNIVERSITY NATURAL SCIENCE;1997-02
10 Xiao Tiangui(Library,Chengdu Institute of MeteOrofogy, Chengdu 610041);STUDY OF TIME SCALING LAW FOR NWPACIFIC TROPICAL CYCL ONE TKACK[J];JOURNAL OF NANJING INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY;1995-03
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved