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《Meteorological Monthly》 2013-06
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Analysis on Forecasting Errors and Associated Circulations of Sudden Typhoon Track Changes During 2005—2010

NI Zhongping~1 WU Liguang~1 ZHANG Ling~2 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.Nanjing 210044 2 Typhoon and Ocean Prediction Centre.China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081  
The forecast errors and associated surrounding flows of sudden typhoon track changes in the western North Pacific during 2005—2010 are examined in this study.By analyzing the forecasts of National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration,it is found that the mean 24h and 48h forecast errors for the sudden north-turning cases are significantly large while the forecasts of sudden west-turning cases are close to the average forecasting levels.For the sudden northward change,compared to the average forecast errors,the mean 24 h and 48 h forecast errors are 145.6 km and 317.3 km respectively, increasing by 29.3%and 68.3%.Further composite analysis on the circulations shows that there are clear differences in the westward extension of the low-frequency component of the subtropical high and the synoptic-scale wind fields associated with the tropical cyclones with sudden track changes.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2009CB421503)资助
【CateGory Index】: P444
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