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《Meteorological Monthly》 2016-04
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Object-Based Verification and Evaluation for Different Types of Severe Convection Forecasting Products

MAO Mao;DAI Jianhua;LI Baiping;ZHANG Xin;Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory;  
According to the characteristics of severe convective weather and the requirements to focus on various factors,object-based verification method is developed to find the potential value of forecasts.First of all,convection objects,such as convective cells and severe convective weather area,are identified in both forecasts and observations based on intensity and area which meet certain requirements.Then objects in the two datasets are matched according to the area,distance and morphology.After that,objects in forecasts are verified in five aspects,grade TS score,grade size,distance of center of gravity,cross-correlation and morphology(axial and ellipticity).Finally,based on the evaluation preference of users,verification scores by weighted average and evaluation for area,position and shape are provided.Three types of severe convection forecasting products,such as QPF,REF,or convection probability product of the Chinese Meteorological Administration(CMA) SWAN(Severe Weather Analysis and Nowcasting) system,are verified by this object-based method.This method can provide quantitative verification in coincidence and deviation for area,position or intensity.It also can explain why the regular verification scores(such as TS score) are low.Therefore,this method can privide more effective verification and evaluation information for forecasters,combined with above elements.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006002);; 上海市科学委员会科研计划项目(14231202400)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456
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