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《Meteorological Monthly》 2017-04
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A Multi-Time Scales SVM Method for Local Short-Term Rainfall Prediction

HE Jiajia;CHEN Kai;CHEN Jinsong;XU Wenwen;TANG Li;LIU Jun;Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China;Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;The National Climate Observatory in Shenzhen City;  
In recent years,SVM(support vector machine) has been widely used in meteorological field.Single modeling is the most common approach for this type of application which just looks for a large,generic prediction mode to forecast surface rainfall.In this study,individual meteorological stations were modeled dynamically through multi-time scale SVM.So we established a dynamic short-term rainfall forecasting model and fully considered the difference of meteorological elements at different time stamps of different sites,solving the problem that the single fixed global model is concerned with the whole law too much and neglects the difficiency of local meteorological changes at different sites and different times.Therefore,our method has the ability of improving the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecast.In our study,the prediction for higher density and finer rainfall in geographical space was basically achieved,the temporal resolution was 1 h,and the TS score was always kept at a high level.As a result,the average TS score of 1 h forecast is more than 40%,and for some sites,it is close to 50%.Thus,the prediction accuracy of the model has certain stability and reference value.
【Fund】: 深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室项目(ZDSYS20140715153957030和SZQX2015113);; 广东省科技厅项目(2014A020218014)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LI Guanlin;YAN Wei;WANG Rui;HAN Ding;LU Wen;WAN Yinghu;LI Wei;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,PLA University of Science and Technology;;Research on Retrieval of Cloud Top Height Based on A-Train Data[J];气象;2016-08
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4 ZENG Minjian;WANG Guicheng;WU Haiying;SHEN Yun;LI Xin;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences;Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology,CMA;Lianyungang Meteorological Observatory;Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Observatory;National Meteorological Center,CMA;;Study of the forecasting method for the classified severe convection weather based on a meso-scale numerical model[J];气象学报;2015-05
5 SUN Jisong;LEI Lei;YU Bo;DING Qinglan;Beijing Meteorological Observatory;Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration;;The fundamental features of the extreme severe rain events in the recent 10 years in the Beijing area[J];气象学报;2015-04
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8 WANG Yaping;CUI Xiaopeng;REN Chenping;YU Hui;Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Meteorological Observatory,Troops 94754 of PLA;Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of China Meteorological Administration;;Cloud Microphysical Characteristics of Different Precipitation Types in Bilis(0604) Torrential Rainfall Events[J];大气科学;2015-03
9 Liu Na;Li Shuanglin;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;;Short-term Climate Prediction for Summer Rainfall Based on Time-scale Decomposition[J];应用气象学报;2015-03
10 ZHANG Lei;WANG Ming-jie;LI Hui;Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China;;Discussion of Relative Accuracy of Short-Range Heavy Rain Nowcasting[J];广东气象;2015-02
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 ZHAO Shuyun;CHEN Lijuan;CUI Tong;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA);Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;CMA–NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, Nanjing University (NJU);;Effects of ENSO Phase-Switching on Rainy-Season Precipitation in North China[J];大气科学;2017-04
2 ZHAO Qingyun;FU Zhao;LIU Xinwei;CHEN Xiaoyan;ZHOU Xiaojun;Lanzhou Centre Meteorological Observation;Lanzhou Meteorological Bureau;;Characteristics of Mesoscale System Evolution of Torrential Rain in Warm Sector over Northwest China[J];高原气象;2017-03
3 GAO Fan;ZHANG Yongjing;LI Rui;CHU Yingjia;Jinan Meteorological Bureau;;Study of mesoscale characteristics of the rainstorm in northwestern Shandong on 3 August 2015[J];海洋气象学报;2017-02
4 ZHANG Lina;ZHOU Xiaogang;XU Liya;China Meteorological Administration Training Center;Hubei Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Center;;A discussion about the conditional instability from the perspective of unstable energy[J];气象学报;2017-03
5 HE Jiajia;CHEN Kai;CHEN Jinsong;XU Wenwen;TANG Li;LIU Jun;Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China;Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;The National Climate Observatory in Shenzhen City;;A Multi-Time Scales SVM Method for Local Short-Term Rainfall Prediction[J];气象;2017-04
6 GAN Lu;GUO Wenli;DENG Changju;Beijing Meteorological Bureau;;Comparative Analysis of Two Torrential Rain Processes in Beijing[J];干旱气象;2017-02
7 XU Ya-qin;ZHAI Guo-qin;Li Guo-ping;YU Zhen-shou;YAN Hong-mei;Jinhua Meteorology Bureau;Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences;Department of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology;;OPTIMIZATION TEST FOR MICROPHYSICAL AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION OF HIGH-IMPACT ZHEJIANG TYPHOONS BY WRF MODEL[J];热带气象学报;2017-02
8 LI Wengjuan;ZHAO Fang;ZHAO Lu;HUANG Juan;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory;;Study of the forecasting index for short-duration heavy rainfall with different intensities based on sounding data at Hangzhou[J];暴雨灾害;2017-02
9 WU Hongyu;LI Chunmei;LIU Weiqin;Guangdong Climate Center;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,CMA;;Variation Characteristics of Hourly Heavy Precipitation in Guangdong During 1961—2014[J];气象;2017-03
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Gu Chengming;Wang Yunfeng;Zhang Xiaohui;Zhong Bo;Ma Xinyuan;Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography,PLA University of Science and Technology;;Effects of Cloud Parameter on Brightness Temperature Computation in Microwave Band[J];应用气象学报;2016-03
2 LI Baiping;DAI Jianhua;ZHANG Xin;WANG Xiaohua;Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory;;Fuzzy Verification Test and Comparison of Three Types of Severe Convective Weather Nowcasting[J];气象;2016-02
3 CHEN Yuanzhao;YU Xiaoding;CHEN Xunlai;Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China;China Meteorological Administration Training Centre;;Characteristics of Short-Time Severe Rainfall Events Based on Weather Flow and Key Environmental Parameters in Pearl River Delta[J];气象;2016-02
4 SUN Jing;SHI Yueqin;CAI Miao;ZHOU Yuquan;TANG Lin;Weather Modification Center of CMA.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;Hunan Weather Modification Office;;Analysis on Cloud Structure Forecast and Seeding Conditions of 3 Types of Cloud System in South China[J];气象;2015-11
5 ZHANG Xiao;DUAN Keqin;SHI Peihong;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Science;College of Tourism and Environmental, Shanxi Normal University;;Cloud Vertical Profiles from Cloud Sat Data over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau during Summer[J];大气科学;2015-06
6 ZENG Mingjian;ZHANG Bei;WU Haiying;WANG Wenlan;SHEN Yun;ZHANG Bing;ZHOU Jialing;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences;Jiangsu Provincial Observatory;National Meteorological Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration;;Study on Severe Convective Weather Forecast Method Based on Approach Concept[J];高原气象;2015-05
7 ZENG Minjian;WANG Guicheng;WU Haiying;SHEN Yun;LI Xin;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences;Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology,CMA;Lianyungang Meteorological Observatory;Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Observatory;National Meteorological Center,CMA;;Study of the forecasting method for the classified severe convection weather based on a meso-scale numerical model[J];气象学报;2015-05
8 ZHOU Hong;YANG Ruowen;ZHONG Aihua;YOU Hong;JIN Shaohua;Yuxi Meteorological Office of Yunnan;Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry(GCMAC),SOA;Dali Meteorological Office of Yunnan;;Analysis on Mesoscale Convective System During a Shear and Cold Front Type Rainstorm Process in Yunnan Province[J];气象;2015-08
9 NIU Jinlong;HUANG Chuhui;LI Guoping;TANG Qiankui;Chengdu City Meteorological Office;Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Office;Chengdu University of Information Technology;;Moist Helicity Indexes Selection and Checking in Chengdu Region for Heavy Rainfall Based on the Fine Data[J];高原气象;2015-04
10 ZHAO Huan;ZHANG Renhe;WEN Min;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;;Severe rainfalls in South China during May 2013 and its relation to the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon[J];气象学报;2015-03
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