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《Tropical Geography》 2010-02
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Analysis of the Characteristics and Extreme Value of Rainfall in Three Coastal Cities of Guangdong Province

XIAO Guansheng,CHEN Zishen (Department of Geographycal Science and planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)  
By using the monthly rainfall data and the maximum daily precipitation data in each month of Shanwei Station,Guangzhou Station and Yangjiang Station during 1953-2008,the characteristics of spatial distribution,the long term trend and abruption are discussed.The result shows that:Morlet wavelet transform was applied to the analysis of the 56 years(1953-2008)monthly precipitation,changes in multi-time scale of monthly precipitation has probed.The periodic variances of precipitation of the three stations comprise long term variances such as 7.8a and 11a,and 2a period is less significant.Based on the theory of distribution of extreme values we compute the maximum daily precipitation in the year in three stations and analyses the difference.With return periods of 2 years,the statistical curves of Pearson-Ⅲdistribution show that the maximum daily precipitation in the year of Shanwei Station,Guangzhou Station and Yangjiang Station are 170 mm,110 mm and 190 mm.Yangjiang Station is up to 300mm with return periods of 5 years.The Mann-Kendall (M-K)test is used to examine the precipitation trend and detect the abruption of these datasets,there were breaking points appeared for the precipitation of Guangzhou Station and Yangjiang Station,Guangzhou Station was in 1981 and Yangjiang Station was in 1971,and both of them changed from the dry period to the dry period. The M-K test shows that the precipitation of the three stations appeared the fluctuating upwardly,and varied differently.Base on R/S analysis,the Hurst exponents of the stations were beyond 0.5,which indicated that all stations had evident Hurst phenomena,a durative on the whole.It means that the precipitation of the three stations had a trend componet,a persistent increasing trend.And there is some difference of the Hurst exponents among Shanwei Station,Goungzhou Station and Yangjiang Station.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学重点基金资助项目(批准号:50839005)
【CateGory Index】: P468.024
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