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《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 2006-03
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APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS IN THE ASSESSMENT MODEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER’S INFLUENCE

LI Chun-mei,LUO Xiao-ling,LIU Jin-luan,HE Jian(Guangdong Climate and Agrometeorology Center,Guangzhou 510080,China)  
The Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the Experts’ Scoring are applied in the assessment model on tropical cyclone(TC) disaster’s influence.The characteristic parameters of TCs landing or severely influencing Guangdong from 1949 to 2003,corresponding meteorological data,direct economic losses and the situation data of disasters,etc,are taken in this model.The indices which take part in the assessment model are divided into 3 hierarchies.The upmost hierarchy is the synthetical TC influence index,and it could be calculated by 4 factors on the second hierarchy:the lowest center pressure,synthetical geographic parameters,synthetical wind parameters and synthetical rain parameters.The basic hierarchy consists of 17 single item indices.The relative importance of every item or factor is decided by the Experts’ Scoring.Then the synthetical TC influence index could be acquired through the AHP.The influence degree of the TC disaster could be judged and the quantitive direct loss could be estimated.This result could be given to the government as a reference,and could be taken to assess the factual effect on defending and decreasing disaster when being combined with the factual investigation data of the loss.
【Fund】: 广东省气象局气象科技研究课题(编号0406)
【CateGory Index】: P429
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