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《Population Research》 2004-05
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Saving and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition:the Population Factor in the Sustainability of China's Economic Growth

Dewen Wang,Associate Professor,Insitute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Fang Cai,Director and Professor,Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Xuehui Zhang,Ph.D Candidate,Graduate School,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.  
Demographic transition is one of the vital factors challenging the sustainable economic growth in China.The interaction of individual life cycle and inter-generation overlapping in the process of demographic transition has impacted on the long-run economic growth through channels of labor supply,saving and technological progress.The empirical study in this paper points out that China's economy has enjoyed population dividend since the mid-1960s,and will benefit from it till about the year 2015.The decline in total dependency ratio contributed to the increase of saving rate by 5 percent or so,and to the increase of economic growth by more than one-fourth in the reform era.If the population dividend in the future 15 years is also included,the contribution of demographic transition will go up to about one-third of China's economic growth.In order to smooth the population aging shocks,it is very urgent for China to take measures such as scaling up employment,speeding up the accumulation of human capital,and setting up a sustainable pension system consistent with China's basic situation,so as to make full use of the future potential population dividend to promote its economic growth.
【CateGory Index】: C924.24
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