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《Population Research》 2014-02
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Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy

Zhai Zhenwu;Zhang Xianling;Jin Yongai;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;  
Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s,and has been increasingly lower,arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment.This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey,and analyzes its impact on number of annual births.The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second child,if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy,number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5. However,immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future,increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China.
【Fund】: 中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金2013年度项目(项目号:13XNH176);; “中国‘第二次人口红利’及对经济长期发展影响的理论与实证分析”资助
【CateGory Index】: C924.21
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