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《Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research》 2008-01
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Climate Change over the Eastern Part of Tibetan Plateau and the Impact on Water Resources in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River

WANG Shunjiu(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072,China)  
the possible association between climate change over the eastern part of Tibetan plateau and the variability of water resources in the upper reaches of Yangtze River is investigated in this study.The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature,precipitation,and runoff are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques.The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 43 years and increased with a speed of 0.136℃ per 10 years.Precipitation also exhibited a slight upward tendency during the past several decades.Decreasing trend at the 10% level of significance during the past 111 years has been detected in the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River,which decreased with a speed of about 7m3/s per year.A significant jump is also detected for temperature time series in the late 1990s and for runoff time series around 1923-1924.This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change,although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation.The trend of future climate change over the eastern part of Tibetan plateau and its impact on the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River are tentatively discussed.In the future decades,the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River will largely decrease under the conditions of temperature rising obviously and precipitation decreasing greatly,whereas it will increase under the conditions of temperature immovability and a great increase in precipitation and the increase range of runoff may be more than that of precipitation.This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Yangtze River.
【Fund】: 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所科研项目(BROP200801 PMP2006005 LPM2005014)
【CateGory Index】: P461.3
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