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《Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research》 2013-01
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Synoptic Meteorology Verification of Precipitation Forecast for T639、 ECMWF Fine Grid Models from May to August 2012 in Sichuan Basin

XIAO Hongru,WANG Canwei,ZHOU Qiuxue,LIU Ying,DENG Jia(Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072)  
In order to make good use of the numerical products of T639 and ECMWF and improve the ability of forecaster,the 96h precipitation verification is carried out in different systems which happened in Sichuan Basin from May to August in 2012.The results show that the effect from ECMWF is better than which from T639 about the precipitation forecasting caused by different system.Both of the two models can predict the heavy rain caused by the Plateau vortex and the Southwest vortex more accurately than which caused by other weather systems.Comparing with the observation,the prediction of the intensity prediction of main rain belt and precipitation centre is weaker in the two models,and the region of main rain belt is smaller in T639 and broader in ECMWF.It indicates the high possibility of missing report in T639.When the main rain belt and the precipitation centre in the two models are inconsistent with the observations,they located to the west and south of the observations and moved slower than observed.
【Fund】: 2010行业专项:GYHY201006039强降水诱发山体滑坡、泥石流气象预报警报技术;; 2012业务建设项目:灾害性天气预报业务系统的改进与升级
【CateGory Index】: P459.9
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