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《Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)》 2009-04
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APPLICATION EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FORECASTING HORIZONTAL DEFORMATION

LI Zun-jian1,SU Dao-wu2(1.Taian Municipal Administration Engineering Department,Taian 271000,China;2.Donge Water Conservancy Bureau,Donge 252201,China)  
This paper applies exponential smoothing model according to the observation data characteristics,Selects trend of the thrice exponential smoothing model,and according the smallest criterion to select appropriately smooth coefficient,has forecast the special point horizontal deformation quantity.The result indicated that,this method comparing with criterion may cause smaller error value between the forecast value and the actual deformation value,and may be more stable comparing with the quadratic curve fitting.
【CateGory Index】: TU196.2
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