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《EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH IN SICHUAN》 1994-03
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Seismic Petential of Long term Strong Shock On The Maowen Wenchuan Segment Of The Longmenshan Fault Zone

Bai Lanxiang; Wen Xueze(Seismological Bureau Of Sichuan Province)  
The Maowen Wenchuan fault segment is the north east segment of the Longmenshanfault zone in west of Sichuan on which the historical seismicity strength is larger. M=6strongearthquakes have not occurred since 1657 IX degree earthquake. For analysing the seismicpotential on the segment for the future,we systematically analysed the information of destructiveand felt earthquakes. We evaluated the average time interval of characteristic earthquakerecurrence on the fault in recent ness,the probability of repetition strong earthquake in hundredyears from 1995 to future using the rotation model of characteristic earthquake in China continentand the probability medel of repetition time. Moreover,we analysed the variation process ofearthquake repetition risk of probability expression with the passage of time. The results indicatethat the repetition risk of strong earthquake is middle or middle and high level, but the possibilityof earthquake occurrence is smaller in recent years.
【CateGory Index】: P315
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