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《Population and Development》 2011-02
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Scenario Analysis for the Trends of Paper Consumption in China:Urbanization Effect in the Medium Term

CAO Gui-ying1,ZHENG Xiao-ying2,Joanna Horabik1,Sten Nilsson1,XU Jin-tao3,WANG Hai-dong2,WANG Hao-chen2(1 International Institute of Applied System Analysis,Austria;2 Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;3 The Environment Engineering College,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)  
This paper analyzes the impact of urban growth on future paper consumption based on the medium term demographic-economic scenarios.The method of "regression with authocorrelated errors" is used to examine implications of alternative development paths of urban growth on paper consumption.The simulation results confirm a hypothesis that the urbanization process in China strongly affects paper consumption.Since more rapid urbanization process is possible,it would have correspondingly larger effects.Comparing demographic variables with economic variables,the effect of urban household economic factors is relatively more pronounced.According to the simulation results,we expect that pressure for environmental aggravation will increase in association with the paper consumption growth in the medium term future.
【CateGory Index】: F426.83
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