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An Econometric Analysis of China's Public Investment and Economic Growth and A Comment on the Crowding-out Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment

Yang Xiaohua  
This paper make use of the data collected in 20 years since China's reform and opening policy to make a cointegration analysis of public investment,private investment and the output.The result shows that there exists a unique,stable and long-standing equilibrious relationship among public investment,private investment and the output.In the long-run,public investment has a positive promotion of the output.And the result of impulse-response analysis also shows that whether in the long-run or in the short-run,public investment has always a positive effect on the output.Public investment has a crowding-in effect on private investment in the short-run while a crowding-out effect in the long-run.But both the effects are weak.The result of this empirical study brings some policy implications that,to keep the rapid economic growth of China,it is essential to further increase the capital stock of public investment and meanwhile to make efforts to optimize the investment structure.Public investment should be free to advance or retreat,and to decide what it should do and what it should not do.
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