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《Shandong Science》 2013-02
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Prediction of Beijing traffic carrying capacity

LI Rong1,WU Jian-jun2(1.School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)  
The essentials that cause traffic congestion,environmental pollution and resource deficiency lie in too rapid vehicle increase which even exceeds traffic carrying capacity.We employ multivariate analysis to analyze the key factors impacting vehicle number.We also construct a time series prediction model for every key factor,and employ multiple regression analysis to predict vehicle number.We further establish a quantitative calculation model to determine urban traffic carrying capacity based on the analysis of key factors of traffic carrying capacity.The number of motor vehicle will exceed Beijing traffic carrying capacity after 2010 based on the calculation of the present data,and the vehicle growth rate will exceed that of traffic carrying capacity.Some relevant specifications therefore must be drawn to restrict the increase in vehicle number.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(71271024);; 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0764);; 北京市自然科学基金(8102029);; 教育部高等学校优秀博士学位论文资助项目(201170)
【CateGory Index】: U491.14
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