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《Water Resources and Power》 2015-03
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Bidding Quotation of EPC Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

CHEN Zhi-ding;HU Miao;GUO Qi;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University;  
In the construction project bidding under the mode of engineering procurement construction(EPC),reasonable bidding quotation not only determines the bidder whether will win the bid,but also plays a decisive role in whether the project will profit or not in the future.Based on the risk analysis of EPC projects in bidding quotation,the probability distribution of the risk factors is studied.The risk factors of EPC projects are fitted with random variables.The reasonable bidding quotation is obtained by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation.The results of instance application show that the scope of the project cost is close to the actual cost considering random risk factors,which has a highly credibility.While the confidence level is different,the project cost is also different.Therefore,the final bidding quotation is determined according to the confidence level of the contractor.
【CateGory Index】: TU723.2
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