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《水动力学研究与进展B辑(英文版)》 2008-03
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KALMAN FILTERING CORRECTION IN REAL-TIME FORECASTING WITH HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

WU Xiao-ling,WANG Chuan-hai,CHEN Xi,XIANG Xiao-hua State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China ZHOU Quan Shanghai pudong area hydrology bureau,Shanghai 201208,China  
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management,including flood control,flood warning,reservoir operation and river regulation.In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need.The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast.A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River.The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods(2004).The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.
【Fund】: the National Science and Technology Planning (Grant No. 2006BAC05B02)
【CateGory Index】: TV131.2
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