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《Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases》 2018-04
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Application of Grey Model(1,1) in the Prediction of the Incidence of Notifiable Diseases in Sichuan Province

LIU Shukun;ZHOU Yalin;LIANG Jin;YANG Lian;YUAN Yanping;Chengdu University of TCM;Changshou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing;  
Objective To predict the trend of notifiable disease in Sichuan province through applying the Grey Model( 1,1),and to predict the incidence rates from 2015 to 2017 via extrapolation method based on those diseases of which the accuracy reach level one or level two. Methods The incidence rates of 34 kinds of notifiable disease which were reported completely from 2005 to 2014 were collected. First,the GM( 1,1) was built up by using MATLAB 6. 1. Then, the Posteriori Error Estimates method was used to test the accuracy of model. For those infectious disease models meeting the accuracy requirement,the paper predicted the incidence rates from 2015 to 2017. Finally, the actual and expected morbidity of notifiable diseases in Sichuan province were compared. Results There were eighteen kinds of infectious disease model up to level one and two in accuracy. After the extrapolation,the study found that except the upward trend of AIDS,HIV and hepatitis C as well as hepatitis E,the rest 14 kinds of infectious disease showed a downward trend. The trend of actual and expected morbidity of notifiable diseases,which focused on the leading infectious diseases including phthisis,HIV,virus hepatitis,etc.,in Sichuan province in 2015 was well consistent. Conclusion The Grey Model( 1,1) was applicable for short-term forecast of diseases that had stable epidemic and for analysis on data of small sample and less information. The prediction accuracy will be improved if the researchers could preprocess the modeling sequence and combine the qualitative analysis method,providing theoretical references for the countermeasures-making of infectious diseases control and prevention.
【Fund】: 中国博士后基金第60批面上项目“构建剖宫产术后再次妊娠风险评估的方法体系和预警模型”(项目编号:2016M602699);; 四川省社会科学研究“十三五”规划2016年度课题“社会福利最大化视角下公立医院医疗服务定价理论模型与实证研究”(项目编号:SC16B029)
【CateGory Index】: R51;R183
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