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《Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering》 2005-03
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Geological condition and weather couple model of landslide hazard forecast

ZHANG Gui-rong,YIN Kun-long,CHEN Li-xia,BU Ke-ming(Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China)  
A forecasting and warning model of regional geo-hazard is established based on the coupling of geology-meteorology through the combination of the geological settings and the precipitation conditions. On the basis of the spatial forecast for the regional geo-hazard, the occurrence law of the geo-hazard under various geological settings and precipitation conditions is studied with the model combined with the real-time weather information; with which the precision of the regional landslide forecast can be improved as well. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, the target area for the study is zoned by the hazard prediction with spatial forecast model developed for the landslide(debris flow), and then the forecasting and warning zones are determined with superposing the precipitation map over the hazard zone forecasting map; furthermore, the critical precipitation and the threshold of the rainfall intensity for the regional landslide are determined ,and then the macro-scopical forecasting and warning model for the regional hazard from landslide is developed at the same time.
【Fund】: 教育部博士点基金资助项目 ( 2003049100 );; 浙江省科学技术厅重大科技攻关招标项目;; 浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范研究项目.
【CateGory Index】: P642.22
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