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Zhao Pingxi(Chunliang Oil Production Co., Shengli Petroleum Administration, Shandong, 256504)  
The exponential model with additive stochastic noise is widely used in the modeling of economic and engineering system.According to the method of modern control theory, this paper studies how to found a class of dynamic predictive model ofnonlinear stochastic system by the observation data. A recursive identification procedure of exponential model parameters inthis paper can elindnate the defects of iterative algorithm which holds much memory space and is unable to run and operateon-line. As the model parameters vary with time, the virtual noise technique is used for repairing the model error caused byparameter time-varving, thus the accuracy of prediction model is improved. This paper analyses the circumstance and cause ofcasing failure of oil and water wells, then establish the prediction model by applving the method which has been indicatedabove, and predicts the casing failure rate of some oil and water wells. It is valuable to overall planning and master design offield that the method of establishing prediction model.
【CateGory Index】: TE256
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