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《Journal of Hydraulic Engineering》 2013-05
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Study on the characteristic of multiply events of drought and flood probability in Luanhe River Basin based on Copula

YANG Zhi-yong 1 , YUAN Zhe 1 , 2 , FANG Hong-yang 1 , 3 , YAN Deng-hua 1 ( 1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038 ,China; 2. College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083 ,China; 3. College of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038 ,China)  
Based on the daily precipitation data of 1957-2010 at Duolun , Chengde , Qinglong and Leting Meteorological stations in the Luanhe River Basin , the sequences of percentage of precipitation anomalies ( Spring/Summer/Autumn ) were fitted by GP model. By the L-moment method , the parameters of GP were estimated. Two kinds of Copula functions ( Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard ) were used to fit the spring-summer and summer-autumn percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences and the probability of multiple events of drought and flood were calculated. The results show that ( 1 ) Both the Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard can better fit the seasonal percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences ;( 2 ) The multiple events of drought and flood are most likely to take place in Qinlong and Leting , the frequency of long drought is high during spring and summer , the frequency of alternating occurrences of drought and flood is high during summer and autumn and the summer-autumn multiple events of drought and flood are easily to explored.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951102);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51021066;51009148);; 科技部基础性工作专项项目(2009IM020100;2011IM011000);; 中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(资集1206)
【CateGory Index】: P333
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