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《Mathematics in Practice and Theory》 2011-23
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Improvement and Application of Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model

YANG Hua-long,LIU Jin-xia,ZHENG Bin (Transportation Management College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)  
This paper studied the process of prediction formula of grey prediction GM(1,1) model by automatic optimization and least squares methods.It was found that artificially giving the background value and the initial value in grey prediction GM(1,1) model was quiet unreasonable and exiting modified methods of grey prediction GM(1,1) model were not well enough.In order to improve the prediction precision of grey prediction GM(1,1) model,this paper proposed and used automatic optimization to select the background value and revised the initial value based on least squares theory,and then a new forecasting formula was put out.The results of empirical analysis indicates that,the proposed method is an effective and perfect,and the predictive effect of the improved grey prediction GM(1,1) model is much better.
【Fund】： 国家自然科学基金(70972008 70971014)
【CateGory Index】： N941.5;O242.1
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