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《Mathematics in Practice and Theory》 2019-15
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Combination Forecast of Water Use Structure in Hebei Province Based on Component Data

CHEN Zi-tian;XIAO Heng;School of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power;School of Environmental & Municipal Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power;  
Based on the water consumption data from 2003 to 2016 in Hebei Province,this paper construct a combination forecast model of water utilization structure by combining with gray model(GM)and second exponential smoothing model(SESM).The component data for water utilization structure was firstly transformed into spherical projection data.Then single forecast was carried out by using GM(1,1)and SESM.Finally,the weight of the combination forecast model is determined by comparing the values of total Aitchison distance between GM(1,1)and SESM.The results show that the combination forecast model can better reflect the changing characteristics of the water structure,and the fitting precision is obviously improved compared with the single forecasting model.Applying this model to forecast the water utilization structure in Hebei province can provide scientific reference for regional water management and efficient utilization.
【Fund】: 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401407);; 河南省高等学校重点科研资助项目(16A570003);; 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(IWHR-SKL-201615)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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